Friday 9th June 2023
Durbar Marg, Kathmandu


Correspondent Yoon Young-sook of Yonhap Infomax = The New York stock market rose on expectations of congressional debt ceiling negotiations despite remarks by officials from the Federal Reserve System (Fed).

As of 10:35 am on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on the 18th (US eastern time), the Dow Jones 30 Industrial Average is recording 33,476.47, up 55.70 points (0.17%) from the battlefield.

The Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 Index rose 20.45 points (0.49%) from the battlefield to 4,179.22, and the Nasdaq Index rose 107.36 points (0.86%) from the battlefield to 12,607.93.

Investors are keeping an eye on comments from Fed officials, debt ceiling negotiations and economic data.

Dallas Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) President Lori Logan said on the same day that the basis for the Fed to stop raising rates is not yet clear.

“The indicators coming out in the coming weeks may show whether it’s appropriate to skip the next meeting,” Logan said in a speech on the day. “But as of today, we have not reached that point yet.”

“Inflation is still too high, and we haven’t made enough progress yet to bring it down,” Fed Director Philip Jefferson said on the same day.

He expects the economy to slow “significantly” this year, although the underlying assumptions do not include a recession. He also acknowledged that the uncertainty of the policy impact on the economy is considerable, and said that the next meeting would consider all factors affecting employment and prices.

Jefferson has been nominated as vice chairman of the Fed.

The Fed’s next monetary policy meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) regular meeting, is scheduled for June 13-14.

Many Fed officials who have come out so far have stated that it is too early to judge on a rate freeze in June, and that it is not yet time to declare victory.

This is an area that raises investor alertness, as it suggests that the stock could soon return to tightening mode if indicators do not slow as quickly as expected.

Traders in the US interest rate futures market raised the odds of the Fed raising rates by 0.25 percentage point at its June meeting to 36%. It was 28% the day before, and 10% a week ago.

Investors are also keeping an eye on US debt ceiling negotiations. Although President Joe Biden is absent due to attending the G7 summit, working-level consultations continue.

Expectations for a deal on the debt ceiling increased as House Speaker Kevin McCarthy said on the same day that a vote on a debt ceiling agreement could be voted on as early as next week.

As a result, the index, which started in a downtrend at the remarks of a Fed official, turned to an uptrend all at once.

Chairman McCarthy said at a meeting with reporters that day, “I see a way to reach an agreement,” and said, “We have a (consultation) system now, and everyone is working hard.”

On the other hand, although the number of claims for unemployment benefits in the US announced that day has decreased significantly, an analysis has been made that it is difficult to judge the soundness of the labor market due to noise caused by illegal supply and demand.

According to the U.S. Department of Labor, 242,000 people filed for unemployment insurance in the week ending March 13, down 22,000 from the previous week.

This is far below the 250,000 figure predicted by experts compiled by the Wall Street Journal (WSJ). The week before ending on the 6th, the highest number was recorded in 1 year and 7 months. However, JP Morgan analyzed that fraudulent claims may have played a role, saying that the number of unemployment benefits in Massachusetts increased more than the number of unemployment claims in Massachusetts in the first week of May, which ended on the 6th. Authorities in Massachusetts acknowledged an increase in allegedly fraudulent fraudulent claims and adjusted it, saying the number of claims for benefits fell by 14,000 last week.

This means that unemployment is not growing as fast as expected, suggesting that the US job market remains robust.

Wal-Mart’s earnings announced on the same day also exceeded market expectations, easing concerns about an economic slowdown. Wal-Mart also raised its full-year guidance.

Wal-Mart evaluated that “(consumption) resilience is amazing,” even though consumers are buying smaller units, reducing discretionary items, and waiting for high-priced products to be promoted.

Previously, at Home Depot and Target, consumers showed an increase in consumption of daily necessities and a reduction in discretionary spending, but generally suggested that consumption was solid.

Experts on the New York stock market said that the market was still stuck in a box range without finding a breakthrough.

“The market is stuck in a boxed range tied to debt ceiling headlines,” said Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management.

Since November of last year, the S&P 500 has been trading in the 3,800-4,200 range.

European stock markets rose all at once.

The German DAX index is up 1.10%, and the UK FTSE index is up 0.22%. The French CAC index is up 0.57%, and the pan-European STOXX600 index is up 0.33%.

International oil prices are declining slightly.

The July price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell 0.74% from the battlefield to $72.35 per barrel, and the July Brent crude price fell 0.92% from the battlefield to $76.26 per barrel.


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